I just read this article from Randy Ingermanson's blog called The Future of Publishing. If you are interested in publishing and what your future is in the big flow of the mighty rivers within it, read this article. It's extremely insightful. http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/07/07/the-future-of-publishing/
It's long and very detailed, 9 specific predictions, looking at the broad expanse of publishing and how it will change. I'm inclined to agree, although I don't see anything in this article about how Amazon and other e-distributors will fit in. I think those things, which will ultimately determine the income of published authors, are in great flux right now, so certainly I would be reluctant to make such a prediction.
I'm guessing anyway, though. Apple's iPad is making a huge play for the ebook market. Sony, Barnes & Noble and many small distributors are also diving into the melee. Amazon's Kindle intends to own the whole show. But now Google is headed toward the skirmish pile. Then there are all the small ebook publishers. Will they be squeezed out by self-publishing in e-form? Well, I think the strong and innovative will stay strong. The weaker, poorly organized companies will miss too many opportunities. And in the end- or perhaps only the immediate end- Amazon will not rule the world after all. Sorry, Amazon. To use a parallel in nature: The mighty Amazon River flows into an ocean- the Atlantic Ocean. And the ocean is bigger.